Well lets look at the math on your scenario. Lets say you are 3 at a time user through Netflix at a rate of $17/month.
That equates to $204 annually. Add 5 purchased movies a year at $20.00 each, so another $100 annually.
So $304 annually. Within 2 years you are roughly at the same amount as buying the 2 players to be format neutral.
Another scenario, lets say you are a 4 at a time user at 24 monthly, and that you will only purchase 5 movies ever.
Within 2 years you are at $676. That's real close to the purchase price of 2 players to be format neutral.
I'm perfectly in agreement with you math. But most people will want one HD standard. It's better for mass adoption since HD is in its infant stages.
I really didn't care who won, but it was time to move on with one standard.
