Axiom Home Page Forums General Discussion The Water Cooler KENTUCKY DERBY

mhorgel-

so come on mark.. HOW WAS THE DERBY?? did you fill er up on mint julips? did you pull out your best hat? did you get muddy??

lets hear the good stuff!!

i had my money on tapit, and the SOB didnt even show for me.. i know its stupid, but i just had to root for the horse that has beer and eggs in its diet..

i wonder if he likes avocados??

bigjohn

And I had to root for the winner. Go Smarty Jones! The local Philly horse goes down to Kentucky and takes it all. It might just be the first time I've ever cared about a horse race.

Bigjohn;

I didn't make it to the Derby, but I did go to Oaks. The Kentucky Oaks is like the Kentucky Derby for fillies, and is held on the day before Derby. it is considered more of a locals day, and very little business gets done in Louisville on Oaks Day.

In any case, I made my Derby bets on Friday. A friend and I split a 5 horse trifecta box consisting of Lion Heart, Smarty Jones, Read the Footnotes, The Cliff's Edge, and Borrega. In addition, I put win/place money on Borrega and Read the Footnotes. I could find nothing not to like about Smarty Jones, but I don't bet favorites to win. At the last second, I placed an Oaks-Derby double bet on Ashado (the Oaks winner) with Smarty and Footnotes. That one paid $60, and is the only derby ticket I will be cashing.

Smarty Jones was clearly the best horse on the track Saturday, and I would not be surprised to see him win the Triple Crown. His nearly unknown jockey gave him a perect ride, and he ran down a tough speedster who was allowed to get loose on an easy lead, and all in the slop.

Anybody sitting on a $2 win ticket for the Derby ought to hold onto it, because the ticket will be a lot more valuable than $10.20 should Smarty Jones win the Triple Crown.

BTW, for all you bourbon drinkers out there, Woodford Reserve makes a Kentucky Derby commerative bottle each year...I picked up one today as a thank you for my host for the Oaks. You can see the bottle here

Mark

sorry you didnt make to the derby, but at least you got to see some racing.

that smarty jones sure turned it up a notch on saturday.. i am not a big horse racing fan, but you just couldnt help but admire that run. well, better luck next year.

i have never heard of that woodford reserve.. i will have to give it a shot.

bigjohn

Better late than never...
There seemed to be a pretty heavy speed bias on the CD main track Saturday. I would expect Smarty to look good in the Preakness, too, as that race always seems to be won on or near the front. Triple Crown seems highly unlikely, though.

You can't go by that...there was a thunderstorm that dumped a bunch of rain on the track between the 7th and 8th races...the track went from fast to sloppy...also, a speed favoring track would have favored Lion Heart, who led for the first 6 furlongs or so with moderate fractions.

Mark

Re-check the opening half, Mark. Those were blistering fractions for CD, if I recall correctly.

Opening quarter--22.99
Opening half--46.73

I don't think these are particularly fast for CD. On Friday, in a six furlong race the opening quarter was 20.68. That's blistering.

Mark

Mark, there is a big difference between the pace of a 6 furlong sprint and a 10 furlong route. The Derby fractions were quick for that distance and for that distance at that track. More importantly, the horses on the lead stayed there all the way around. They ran fast and didn't fade. The same thing happened in all the Derby preps that day. The track simply favored speed horses.
I didn't hear whether they sealed the track earlier that day or not, but - judging by the results and the amount of rain that came down that day - they must have.

They are pretty good at sealing the track at CD, but no amount of sealing could have prevented the track from degrading...at least an inch or 2 of rain fell in 30 minutes, and the track officially went from "fast" to "sloppy", so I'm not sure whether you can make any conclusions about the Derby based on earlier races.

The half mile fractions for the last 5 Kentucky Derbys are as follows: 46.23, 47.04, 44.86, 45.99, 47.88. That puts the 46.73 pace set by Lion Heart in the middle somewhere. I don't see how the fourth fastest half mile in the past 6 years can be described as "blistering".

We could argue all day about whether the track bias aided the winners, or whether Smarty Jones won simply because he is the best horse, and that is what makes horse racing interesting. I think that question will be answered Saturday as Smarty Jones takes the Preakness on his way to the first Triple Crown in over 30 years. The parallels between Smarty Jones and Seattle Slew are numerous.

Mark

The difference between this years Derby fractions and those of other years (War Emblem's Derby win excepted) is that the horses setting the early fractions in prior Derbies all caved in the stretch (lots of lick but no stick ), while this years front runners never tired.
It's probably too early to compare Smarty to the great horses of the past, much less Seattle Slew. The Derby win was impressive but... the track favored speed horses that day. His previous wins did not come at premier tracks against top-notch company.
I suspect he will fare well in the Preakness - probably win - but the Belmont 3 weeks later? We'll see.

are you guys beating dead horses? sorry couldn't help myself.
dan

actually, there not dead at all, they are really fast.. at least one of them thinks so!!

i know its not scientific, but when i bet at the dog or horse track.. i always chose the one that poops right before the race. i figure they are a little bit lighter that way.. and i dont know about ya'll, but i feel great after a #2..

bigjohn

That's been the story with the Derby over the years...Pace pressers tend to win most often...front runners win once in a while, closers win some.

I still don't think that anything that happened before the storm is pertinent to the Derby...the track was totally different. You cannot say that the track for the Derby was speed favoring based on the previous races that day. I don't feel that Smarty Jones won because of any track bias...he was simply much the best horse that day.

I wasn't yet comparing Smarty Jones to Seattle Slew...that will need to wait 3 1/2 weeks. There are some parallels, however. Both undefeated, with relatively unknown trainers and jockeys.

At least one of Smarty Jones' wins came at a premier track against top-notch company.

No doubt Smarty Jones is a good horse - a great horse even. I liked him a lot going into the Derby but I just couldn't stomach 4-1 in a field of 18 quality horses. There has been just too many huge prices in that race during my lifetime for me to go with the favorite.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if the track was so sloppy how did the front runners manage to set such a reasonable pace and yet not tire in the muck?

This must be what it's like for an American to hear two Canadians discussing the curl, runs and falls in a sheet of curling ice?

Bren R.

no offense bren, but why do they call that a sport?? ANY sport that requires the use of a broom, is not a sport, its a domestic duty.. its a game.. its not a sport. football is a sport.. monopoly is a game. and curling, well, its just curling??

all kidding aside, i see that game evolving kinda like horseshoes or washers here in the US. a bunch of drunk guys, standing around outside, with nothing to do.

bigjohn

In reply to:

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all kidding aside, i see that game evolving kinda like horseshoes or washers here in the US. a bunch of drunk guys, standing around outside, with nothing to do.

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I curled for 16 years, I also play baseball and soccer... and curling and soccer both met up at the top of the strenuous activity list.

I enjoy watching any sport, and I've broadened my horizons, I'll watch cricket and rugby when I can catch a game - I even played cricket in high school, the drama teacher (a very proper Englishman) decided to take a bunch of us dirtbags who hung out by the auto shop smoking and teach us the game - I was pretty cocky going into it... after all, I played A ball up until junior, I knew how to swing a bat. It's a hell of a lot different when the bowler's taking a run at you and you have to take it off a bounce, lemme tell you!

Bren R.

What, no "I told you so!", Mark?

That was a VERY impressive Preakness win on a track that the announcers said was not favoring speed. Smarty was much better than everyone else.

They way he just pulled away from everyone, I see a triple crown in 3 weeks. Nobody was even close to able to compete.

I absolutely agree...I never bet favorites...though I had him in my exotics.

Mark

I'm saving the "I told you so" for after the Belmont. Remember, though, that Funny Cide won the Preakness by 9 lengths. That said, Smarty Jones smoked the field after pressing what can only be described as a moderate to slow pace. He was much the best again Saturday.

Mark

The Cliffs Edge?

Hmm.. just heard an anecdote from a coworker that came back from the Derby... apparently there was a guy outside selling knock-off Derby merchandise who was "bought out" by a few members of the US Military, they allegedly (and I believe the friend) overturned his table and dragged his merchandise into the dirt and stomped on it.

So much for the Posse Comitatus Act?!? (US Code Title 18, Part 1, Chapter 67, Sec. 1385) ... and there's a US DoD directive 5525.5(B) that extends the restrictions to Naval and Marine personnel.

Bren R.

If you get a chance, read what Andrew Beyer had to say about Smarty Jones and the Preakness (Washingtonpost.com). Second best Beyer speed figure since 1987. What most impressed me was coming down the stretch you see Rock Hard Ten visibly surge but Smarty Jones just pour it on, like he had hit that gear already and was in overdrive. Effortless.
"The next best thing to playing and winning is playing and Losing."

Sounds like some righteous frontier justice to me, Bren

The scary thing is that Smarty Jones didn't even go all out down the stretch. His jockey only tapped him with the whip twice, and he had a whole lot more horse he never had to call on. If he doesn't get injured or sick, I don't see anybody beating him in the Preakness.

Mark

I'd say that's a pretty good prediction, Mark - considering the Preakness was run almost a week ago!

I got 100-1 odds in Mark's favor...taking all bets.

Tough crowd. I guess the real question is whether Smarty Jones can keep his mind on racing and not on that gold-digging tramp Butterscotch.

Oops. I meant Belmont. Unless Smarty's jockey falls off he's going to win. I bet he goes off as a 1-5 favorite.

Mark

Speaking of which...how soon before the race will the odds come out?

Pre race odds, which are set by the track handicappers, usually come out after the final field is set and the post positions drawn, probably Wednesday before the race. Those odds will have nothing to do with the actual betting odds which will be determined solely by how much money bettors place on each horse.

Mark

Don't the betting odds start at whatever the prerace odds are, and then get adjusted based off of what people are actually betting?

If they're not related, then how soon can people start placing bets on a winner or other combo bets?

Usually the morning of the race, when the tracks open for "early bird" wagering. Sometimes, for really big races (like the Belmont?) tracks will start taking advance play wagers the day before.

The track handicappers morning line is not relevant to the parimutel odds, but they do provide some clues to bettors. One school of thought suggests betting the overlays - horses whose ML odds were significantly lower than their race-time odds. Many bargains can be had that way, but don't let that be the only factor in determinig which horse to bet. Forget about the price - pick the winner.

So to actually bet the race you have to go to a turf club or other similar places that takes bets on the day of the race to make your wager.

As for me, I'd like to put something on Smarty, but just picking him to win isn't going to get me too far. I probably would need to do at least an exacta to make anything.

Bet big to win big.

Actually, a $2 win ticket on Smarty Jones for the Belmont will probably be worth more as a souvenir than it will be to cash. My guess is that he will pay no more than $2.40 to win.

Mark

Sounds like a good time to bet him to place or show. Even at $2.10 for show, you're getting 5% interest on your money instantly. $10,000 bet to show = $500+ profit. That'll get you a new sub or some M22s and a few DVDs. Of course, he could finish off the board...