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#44441 - 05/22/04 02:35 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
mhorgel Offline
devotee

Registered: 10/02/03
Posts: 438
Loc: Louisville, KY
Oops. I meant Belmont. Unless Smarty's jockey falls off he's going to win. I bet he goes off as a 1-5 favorite.

Mark
_________________________
"Shoot, a fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff"

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#44442 - 05/22/04 09:14 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
Zarak Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 03/09/03
Posts: 1852
Loc: PA
Speaking of which...how soon before the race will the odds come out?

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#44443 - 05/22/04 11:51 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
mhorgel Offline
devotee

Registered: 10/02/03
Posts: 438
Loc: Louisville, KY
Pre race odds, which are set by the track handicappers, usually come out after the final field is set and the post positions drawn, probably Wednesday before the race. Those odds will have nothing to do with the actual betting odds which will be determined solely by how much money bettors place on each horse.

Mark
_________________________
"Shoot, a fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff"

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#44444 - 05/22/04 03:58 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
Zarak Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 03/09/03
Posts: 1852
Loc: PA
Don't the betting odds start at whatever the prerace odds are, and then get adjusted based off of what people are actually betting?

If they're not related, then how soon can people start placing bets on a winner or other combo bets?

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#44445 - 05/22/04 05:40 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
BigWill Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 05/01/03
Posts: 1951
Loc: Corona, Calif. USA!!!
Usually the morning of the race, when the tracks open for "early bird" wagering. Sometimes, for really big races (like the Belmont?) tracks will start taking advance play wagers the day before.

The track handicappers morning line is not relevant to the parimutel odds, but they do provide some clues to bettors. One school of thought suggests betting the overlays - horses whose ML odds were significantly lower than their race-time odds. Many bargains can be had that way, but don't let that be the only factor in determinig which horse to bet. Forget about the price - pick the winner.

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#44446 - 05/23/04 10:04 AM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
Zarak Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 03/09/03
Posts: 1852
Loc: PA
So to actually bet the race you have to go to a turf club or other similar places that takes bets on the day of the race to make your wager.

As for me, I'd like to put something on Smarty, but just picking him to win isn't going to get me too far. I probably would need to do at least an exacta to make anything.

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#44447 - 05/23/04 12:09 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
BigWill Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 05/01/03
Posts: 1951
Loc: Corona, Calif. USA!!!
Bet big to win big.

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#44448 - 05/23/04 01:17 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
mhorgel Offline
devotee

Registered: 10/02/03
Posts: 438
Loc: Louisville, KY
Actually, a $2 win ticket on Smarty Jones for the Belmont will probably be worth more as a souvenir than it will be to cash. My guess is that he will pay no more than $2.40 to win.

Mark
_________________________
"Shoot, a fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff"

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#44449 - 05/23/04 04:42 PM Re: KENTUCKY DERBY
BigWill Offline
connoisseur

Registered: 05/01/03
Posts: 1951
Loc: Corona, Calif. USA!!!
Sounds like a good time to bet him to place or show. Even at $2.10 for show, you're getting 5% interest on your money instantly. $10,000 bet to show = $500+ profit. That'll get you a new sub or some M22s and a few DVDs. Of course, he could finish off the board...



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