mhorgel-

so come on mark.. HOW WAS THE DERBY?? did you fill er up on mint julips? did you pull out your best hat? did you get muddy??

lets hear the good stuff!!

i had my money on tapit, and the SOB didnt even show for me.. i know its stupid, but i just had to root for the horse that has beer and eggs in its diet..

i wonder if he likes avocados??

bigjohn

And I had to root for the winner. Go Smarty Jones! The local Philly horse goes down to Kentucky and takes it all. It might just be the first time I've ever cared about a horse race.

Bigjohn;

I didn't make it to the Derby, but I did go to Oaks. The Kentucky Oaks is like the Kentucky Derby for fillies, and is held on the day before Derby. it is considered more of a locals day, and very little business gets done in Louisville on Oaks Day.

In any case, I made my Derby bets on Friday. A friend and I split a 5 horse trifecta box consisting of Lion Heart, Smarty Jones, Read the Footnotes, The Cliff's Edge, and Borrega. In addition, I put win/place money on Borrega and Read the Footnotes. I could find nothing not to like about Smarty Jones, but I don't bet favorites to win. At the last second, I placed an Oaks-Derby double bet on Ashado (the Oaks winner) with Smarty and Footnotes. That one paid $60, and is the only derby ticket I will be cashing.

Smarty Jones was clearly the best horse on the track Saturday, and I would not be surprised to see him win the Triple Crown. His nearly unknown jockey gave him a perect ride, and he ran down a tough speedster who was allowed to get loose on an easy lead, and all in the slop.

Anybody sitting on a $2 win ticket for the Derby ought to hold onto it, because the ticket will be a lot more valuable than $10.20 should Smarty Jones win the Triple Crown.

BTW, for all you bourbon drinkers out there, Woodford Reserve makes a Kentucky Derby commerative bottle each year...I picked up one today as a thank you for my host for the Oaks. You can see the bottle here

Mark

sorry you didnt make to the derby, but at least you got to see some racing.

that smarty jones sure turned it up a notch on saturday.. i am not a big horse racing fan, but you just couldnt help but admire that run. well, better luck next year.

i have never heard of that woodford reserve.. i will have to give it a shot.

bigjohn

Better late than never...
There seemed to be a pretty heavy speed bias on the CD main track Saturday. I would expect Smarty to look good in the Preakness, too, as that race always seems to be won on or near the front. Triple Crown seems highly unlikely, though.

You can't go by that...there was a thunderstorm that dumped a bunch of rain on the track between the 7th and 8th races...the track went from fast to sloppy...also, a speed favoring track would have favored Lion Heart, who led for the first 6 furlongs or so with moderate fractions.

Mark

Re-check the opening half, Mark. Those were blistering fractions for CD, if I recall correctly.

Opening quarter--22.99
Opening half--46.73

I don't think these are particularly fast for CD. On Friday, in a six furlong race the opening quarter was 20.68. That's blistering.

Mark

Mark, there is a big difference between the pace of a 6 furlong sprint and a 10 furlong route. The Derby fractions were quick for that distance and for that distance at that track. More importantly, the horses on the lead stayed there all the way around. They ran fast and didn't fade. The same thing happened in all the Derby preps that day. The track simply favored speed horses.
I didn't hear whether they sealed the track earlier that day or not, but - judging by the results and the amount of rain that came down that day - they must have.

They are pretty good at sealing the track at CD, but no amount of sealing could have prevented the track from degrading...at least an inch or 2 of rain fell in 30 minutes, and the track officially went from "fast" to "sloppy", so I'm not sure whether you can make any conclusions about the Derby based on earlier races.

The half mile fractions for the last 5 Kentucky Derbys are as follows: 46.23, 47.04, 44.86, 45.99, 47.88. That puts the 46.73 pace set by Lion Heart in the middle somewhere. I don't see how the fourth fastest half mile in the past 6 years can be described as "blistering".

We could argue all day about whether the track bias aided the winners, or whether Smarty Jones won simply because he is the best horse, and that is what makes horse racing interesting. I think that question will be answered Saturday as Smarty Jones takes the Preakness on his way to the first Triple Crown in over 30 years. The parallels between Smarty Jones and Seattle Slew are numerous.

Mark