Mark - I agree with most, if not all of what you said.
I, too, think that HD -DVD might end up like SACD. But, then again, there is still a gap between our ability to resolve clearer images (with our eyes and brains) and the resolution that media is able to provide. I think that this distinguishes High Def DVD from SACD. I think the latter is really only appreciated by, and maybe only recognized as sounding better, by audiophiles, and certainly isn't for the casual listener. Whereas, most people can readily tell the different between a High Def video image and a standard def one. Therefore, I can see more people jumping on the high-def video band-wagon eventually.
But, in the meantime, I agree with you that the technology will take a long time to pick up speed. The speed will depend on how quickly the High Def DVD players get cheap... I now have 3 DVD players in my apartment for three TVs, which means that DVD portability is reaching maximum saturation. Such is the case with CD players, too.
If and when I can afford to have more than one High Def DVD player in my house (at least one for the bedroom and the main HT), I will probably switch over, but will likely only upgrade my current titles with those that are my favorites. Again, I will only do this if the resolution difference is that noticeable. These days, the upconversion software in TVs, etc. is pretty decent, and, while I know the picture can get considerably better, this will really only be an issue when we all have 100" screens in our homes (won't that be cool!).
Until that time, I think the technology will remain ignored by the masses, which, I predict will ultimately doom it. This is especially true when HTPCs are, I predict, going to step in and replace hard-ware eventually (maybe in the next decade or two) and completely.
We'll all just have to wait and see.
