Axiom Home Page Forums General Discussion The Water Cooler Cold weather...

I'm glad this thread has come back to some middle ground. I left it for a while as it was swinging dangerously close to the far edges of political views. Not that that is a bad thing, unless civility is lost, just that I agree that not much gets accomplished on either side of that swing.

Speaking of fuels only for a second, and leaving world weather out of it, I'd be interested to hear more on what people think would happen if a new 100% green, 100% renewable energy source was announced as being invented tomorrow.

Personally, I would love to see a clean, self sustaining replacement for fossil fuels. It's hard to argue that pollution is not a bad thing and that our reliance on a diminishing (yes, the rate can be debated but lets leave that aside for a sec.) fuel source can and will continue to, cause issues.

I do not think that has to mean the end of a particular way of life but I can definitely see where the fears lie and depending on where and who invents it, it could be justified. In a world of trademarks and patents and where control over technology is equal to wealth and power, it's easy to envision a power-shift or a struggle that gets out of hand if such a technology is perfected.

The first big effect.
While I have no desire to see jobs lost, I'd have no problem seeing oil conglomerates lose their market over time. They have way too much control over the worldwide pricing of their own product and I'm certain that at the high levels, enough money has been made that they can still live out their lives a lot more comfortable than the rest of us.

However, I think that even if the invention is an instant 'eureka moment' the shift won't happen in a day and they will have time to adapt or even take control of the greener technologies (although I'd personally rather see it reside elsewhere.)

Even if a totally green, cost effective power was invented tomorrow, it would take forever to implement nation wide, much less world wide. While it might be cost effective in relation to energy production, the new technology will be most certainly expensive. These questions and points remain.

- Despite many energy advances, many nations are still relying on coal. Could they afford to go green even if it was there?

- Even in a Utopia where the government offers consumer incentives, govs can not risk bankrupting themselves. So how long will it take before anyone but the upper class can afford the new technology. Then eventually the upper middle, middle and so on. What happens to the poor family who can't afford to fill their oil tank in the winter, much less replace it while the fuel delivery businesses convert to the new tech or go out of business because it is no longer lucrative. A total switchover is hopefully coming someday, but it must be done at a pace that allows for gov. aid and incentives so that the little guys do not get left behind.

- Will the energy transmission infrastructure have to be completely changed or can electric companies adapt or will every car & household be able to provide their own energy? Again, I bet the transformation will be agonizingly slow. Too fast, the fears of economic issues come true, but at an acceptable pace, the economy simply shifts from the old to the new.

- How would the ownership of the new tech be shared worldwide? Question, would the US (or any nation) be willing to go to Haiti tomorrow and build a new power plant from this newly invented magic tech. (pretending for a moment it existed) or would it be keeping it within it's borders, citing legal issues and such, in order to gain edge in power over their enemies or competing trade nations.

- What happens in the middle east if oil becomes instantly worthless. Again, the "instantly" part is simply not going to happen. I don't pretend to be able to guess how many years a total transformation to a new green energy would take, but I'd again suggest it will take a long time. However, the vision of it becoming worthless would start to take hold.

-- How will the economy shift. Does it have to crash? I don't think it 'has' to. If my less than expertise guess that a transition would be very slow is true, then I suspect that there would be some initial unrest but that eventually jobs would shift into the production of the new tech, equipement and it's delivery. Eventually, competing versions will be developed that get around the initial 'super-patent' and that will divert more industry, spending, jobs etc.

Car factories are already revamping for the slow market for electric cars. So, we know they can adapt slowly but how quickly could they adapt to new super fuel invention? Again, it could mean some don't survive but an optimistic view is that others will divert or create new jobs as new factories are build or revamped. Impossible to predict for sure.

- What happens to the pricing of goods?
Take the auto industry again for example. What happens when the immense costs of energy are removed from their budgets? Big corporations will likely be the first to adopt a new efficient but initially expensive technology, simply because they can afford it. After implementation costs are removes, I'd hazard that the net cost to produce a car will be reduced by an amazing amount of money.

However, will that savings eventually be passed on to the consumer? We certainly know that traditionally, it's very rare to see a company say, "Oh hey, we are lowering our prices because oil went down this month and we wan't to pass the savings on to you." Increasing prices due to oil price increases however are commonplace. The currency exchange rates are another example. We certainly didn't see any savings here in Canada for local prices when products could be bought much cheaper in the US when our dollar was doing well.

Competition will drive savings to the consumer eventually but again, I'd say it will take it's sweet old time.


OK, my totally boring conference call is over so it's back to real work. If you are actually silly enough to still be reading this over sized post. Remember, I'm posing questions, not arguing for either side you might see as radical.

To summarize: Green, renewable tech will be an important achievement for mankind. I think, even hope, that it will not be an instant transformation. Experts will never agree on what the short term effects will be at a society level. There are simply too many questions and it's based on way to many variables. Two of the largest being 'time to implement' and how much of a commodity it becomes vs. the pleasant but unlikely "overnight savior of the world" theory.

Environment aside (as I promised I'd do,) I'm guessing the best social eventuality lies somewhere in the middle.